arma garch trading strategy

But furthermore, Ive spent quite a bit of time taking courses (particularly in Python) on there as well, thanks to having access by being an instructor. Ng (1998 Modeling asymmeric movemens of asse prices, Review of Financial Sudies, 11, Kroner,. Usdcad, usdchf, usdcny, usdjpy, here I wrote another extention page for Q1 which is analyse the multiple currencies and also models from minutes to daily. Typically, he hedging model is 4 5 consruced for a decision maker who allocaes wealh beween a risk-free asse and wo risky asses, namely he physical commodiy and he corresponding fuures. (2007) sugges ha a more accurae model of condiional volailiy should also be superior in erms of hedging effeciveness, as measured by he variance reducion for any hedged porfolio compared wih he unhedged porfolio. Logarihm of Daily Crude Oil Spo and Fuures Prices for Bren and WTI Reurns Reurns brent spot.20 brent futures Reurns.0 Reurns wtisp wtifu 30 31 Figure.

Arima, garch, trading Strategy on the S&P500 Stock Market Index

Note: I am currently looking for networking opportunities and full-time roles related to my skill set. Ticks false, col "darkorange lines(x rves Buy and hold returns col "blue legend(x 'bottomleft legend c Strategy "B H lty 1, col myColors). A fuures conrac is an agreemen beween wo paries o buy and sell a given amoun of a commodiy a an agreed upon cerain dae in he fuure, a an agreed upon price, and a a given locaion. (2009) exended he varma-garch o accommodae he asymmeric impacs of he uncondiional shocks on he condiional variance, and proposed he varma-agarch specificaion of he condiional variance as follows. This is called the GJR-garch model. Choose your flavor: e-mail, twitter, RSS, or facebook. (2009 he opimal porfolio weigh of crude oil spo/fuures holding is given by: w SF, hf, hsf, h 2h h S, SF, F, (20) and 12 13 0, if wsf, 0 wsf, wsf. Therefore, univariae arma-garch models are esimaed, wih he appropriae univariae condiional volailiy model given as arma(1,1)-garch(1,1). However, i is now widely agreed ha financial asse reurns volailiy, covariancec and correlaions are ime-varying wih persisen dynamics, and rely on echniques such as condiional volailiy (CV) and sochasic volailiy (SV) models. Length - length(returns) - window. Txt format 'Y-m-d sep header true) zivRets lculate(Cl(ziv) vxzRets lculate(Cl(vxz) vxzRets'.045 zivSig diff 0 garchOut lag(zivSig, 2) * zivRets lag(vxzSig, 2) * vxzRets histSpy runSD(spyRets, n 21, sample false) * sqrt(252) * 100 spyDiff histSpy - Ad(VIX) zivSig spyDiff. Both variants of this strategy, when forced to choose a side, walk straight into the Feb 5 volatility explosion. So the strategy were going to be investigating is essentially what Ive seen referred to as VRPthe Volatility Risk Premium in Tony Coopers seminal paper, Easy Volatility Investing.


Inser Table 7 here In he case of he WTI marke, opimal porfolio weighs from consan condiional correlaion models, namely CCC and varma-garch, are differen and smaller han hose from he dynamic condiional correlaion models, namely DCC and bekk. M Interview Question I - Multivariate garch Models introduce few multi-variate garch models. Inroducion As he srucure of world indusries changed in he 1970s, he expansion of he oil marke has coninually grown o have now become he world s bigges commodiy marke. I is clear ha when q A l and B are diagonal l marices, (6) reduces o (2) The varma-garch model assumes ha negaive and posiive shocks of equal magniude have idenical impacs on he condiional variance. These resuls are available upon reques. Risk in he crude oil commodiy marke is likely o occur due o unexpeced jumps in global oil demand, a decrease in he capaciy of crude oil producion and refinery capaciy, peroleum reserve policy, opec spare capaciy and policy, major. For example, he larges average value of w SF, of he porfolio comprising crude oil spo and fuures from he CCC model.383, meaning ha invesors should have more crude oil fuures han spo in heir porfolio. Keywords: Mulivariae garch, condiional correlaions, crude oil prices, opimal hedge raio, opimal porfolio weighs, hedging sraegies. Related To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: R QuantStrat TradeR. While there are Python course tracks (EG python developer, which I completed, and Python data analyst, which I also completed Im not sure theyre sufficient in terms of this track was developed with partnership in industrycomplete this capstone course. 2) Question.1) Answer For question 2, I simply write an app, kindly use Q2App. Moosa (2007 Hedging effeciveness and fuures conrac mauriy: The case of nymex crude oil fuures, Applied Financial Economics, 17, 22 Table. An alernaive dynamic condiional model is bekk, which has he aracive propery ha he condiional covariance marices are posiive definie.


arma garch trading strategy

Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, garch

The shor run persisence of shocks on he dynamic condiional correlaions is greaes for WTI.139, while he larges long run persisence of shocks o he condiional correlaions is ( ) for Bren. (2009 and DCC o spo and forward reurn in he Tapis marke. Generally, courses follow a few minutes of lecture, do exercises using the exact same syntax you saw in the lecture, with a lot of the skeleton already written for you, so you dont wind up endlessly guessing. In order o esimae such a raio, early research simply used he slope of he classical linear regression model of cash on he fuures price, which assumed a ime-invarian hedge raio (see, for example, Ederingon (1979 Figlewski (1985 and Myers and Thomson (1989). According o Johnson (1960 he variance of he reurns of he hedged porfolio, condiional on he informaion se available a ime 1, is given by 2 RH, 1 RS, 1 RS, RF, 1 RF,.


JEL Classificaions: C22, C32, G11, G17, G32. Thus, a hedging effecive index (HE) is given as: var HE unhedged var var unhedged hedged, (19) where he variances of he hedge porfolio are obained from he variance of he rae of reurn, R H, and he variance. In his paper, ime-varying hedge raios are esimaed and analysed. The condiional variance, h i, can be defined as a univariae garch model, as follows: h p h i i ik i, k il i, l k1. Opimal Hedge Raios OHR.9 OHR CCC:brsp_brfu varma-garch:brsp_brfu OHR OHR DCC:brsp_brfu bekk:brsp_brfu OHR.6 OHR CCC:wtisp_wtifu varma-garch:wtisp_wtifu OHR.0 OHR DCC:wtisp_wtifu 33 DCC:wtisp_wtifu. And, given how I blog and use tools, I wholly subscribe to the 80/20 philosophyessentially that you can get pretty far using basic building blocks in creative ways, or just taking a particular punchline and applying. Length) turns - returns(1i window.


Thompson (1989 Generalized opimal hedge raio esimaion, American Journal of Agriculural Economics, 71, Ripple,.D. (2006) suggesed ha if an oil and gas company uses fuures conracs o hedge risk, hey hedge only he downside risk. Kindly browse over ShinyApp (Kindly refer to m Interview Question I - Lasso, Elastic-Net and Ridge Regression for more information) which contain the questions and answers of 3 questions. As some of you may know, I instruct a course on datacamp. 18 19 References Alizadeh,.H.,.G. Jalali-Naini and Kazemi-Manesh (2006) examined hedge raios using weekly spo prices of WTI and fuures prices of crude oil conracs one monh o four monhs on nymex. (This article was first published. All mulivariae condiional volailiy models in his paper are esimaed using he rats.2 economeric sofware package.


Garch, archives - Quintuitive

Luckily, switching between ZIV and VXZ keeps the account from completely exploding in a spectacular failure. The SPY strategy ended January at about 0, hardly a success compared with a huge gain on the S P 500. 5 6 The purpose of his paper is o esimae mulivariae condiional volailiy models, namely CCC, varma-garch, DCC and bekk, for he reurns on spo and fuures prices for Bren and WTI markes, o calculae he opimal porfolio weighs. Kroner (1995 Mulivariae simulaneous generalized arch, Economeric Theory, 11, Figlewski,. DCC Esimaes brsp_brfu wtisp_wtifu 32 33 Figure. # arima/garch trading model library(quantmod) library(timeSeries) library(rugarch) # get data and initialize objects to hold forecasts. Inser Tables 5 and 6 here Inser Figure 4 here Table 7 gives he opimal porfolio weighs, OHRs and hedge effeciveness. That is, consider the VIX. The elemens of he 2 2 parameer marices, A and B, are saisically significan. This marke has developed from a primarily physical produc aciviy ino a sophisicaed financial marke. Crude Oil Spo and Fuures Prices for Bren and WTI /barrel 80 /barrel brsp brfu /barrel /barrel wtifu wtisp 29 arma garch trading strategy 30 Figure.


Inser Table 3 here Table 4 repors he esimaes of he condiional mean and variance for varma(1,1)- garch(1,1) models. For example, he larges w SF, is from he bekk model, while he smalles w SF, is from he CCC model, hereby signifying ha he dynamic condiional correlaion models sugges holding crude oil spo (57.1 cens for spo). However my later paper simulated dataset doesn't save the fit in order to retrieve the sigma2 and VaR values for stop-loss pips when I got the idea. Nejadmalayeri (2006 Selecive hedging, informaion, asymmery, and fuures prices, Journal of Business, 79(3 Kroner,. Following from he hedge sraegy, for example, he larges average OHR values are and from varma-garch of Bren and WTI suggess ha one dollar long (buy) in he crude oil spo should be shored (sold) by abou.6 and.6 cens of fuures, respecively.


Ultimately, if the world of data science, machine learning, and some quantitative finance is completely new to youif youre the kind of person that reads my blog, and completely glosses past the code: *this* is the resource for you, and I recommend it wholeheartedly. Inser Figures 1-3 here Sandard economeric pracice in he analysis of financial ime series daa begins wih an examinaion of uni roos. All prices move in he same paern, suggesing hey are conemporaneously highly correlaed. The m Interview Question I - Interday High Frequency Trading Models Comparison compares ts, msts, sarima, mcsgarch, midasr, midas-garch, Levy process models. The rolling predictions take about arma garch trading strategy four minutes to run on the server instance I use, so refitting every single day is most likely not advised. I is clear ha here is significan variaion in he condiional correlaions over ime, especially he spo and fuures reurns of Bren. 3 4 Among he indusries and firms ha are more likely o use a hedging sraegy is he oil and gas indusry. In rugarch, however, you can relax that assumption by specifying something such as std that is, the Student T Distribution, or in this case, sstdSkewed Student T Distribution. Here I also conducting few research tasks to test the efficiency of some statistical models, and also refer. Thompson (2009 Precious mealsexchange rae volailiy ransmission and hedging sraegies, Available a ssrn: hp:m/absrac Jalali-Naini,. (2009) for a comparison of he number of parameers in various mulivariae condiional volailiy models). The srucure of he remainder of he paper is as follows. Based on he coefficien of variaion, he hisorical volailiy among all crude oil reurns are no especially differen.


A Greedy, aRMA /

Here I put it as blooper and start binary-Q1 Multivariate garch Models and later on will write another forex Day Trade Simulation which will simulate all tick-data but not only HiLo data. The degree of shor run persisence, varies across hose reurns. Similarly, when implied volatility is greater than realized volatility, things are as they should be, and it should be feasible to harvest the volatility risk premium by shorting volatility (analogous to selling insurance). My gut feeling is that a strong second half of December (QE setting in?) followed by a strong January is taking a toll on this (and probably other) contrarian strategy. 3) Question III For question 3, due to the question doesn't states we only bet on the matches which overcame a certain edge, therefore I just simply list the scenario. The bivariate or trivariate poisson model might useful for analyse the probability of fund-in and fund-out by investors in order to manage whole investment pool. Myers (1991 Bivariae garch esimaion of he opimal commodiy fuures hedge, Journal of Applied Economerics, 6, Bauwens,.,. The empirical resuls for daily daa from 4 November 1997 o 4 November 2009 showed ha, for he Bren marke, he opimal porfolio weighs of all mulivariae volailiy models suggesed holding fuures in larger proporion han spo. That is, when did the VIX reach its heights? # Use rolling window of 504 days, refitting the model every 22 trading days t1 Sys.


The OHRs are defined as he value of which minimizes he condiional variance (risk) of he hedged porfolio reurns, ha is, min var R,. Eurusd - v header T eurusd, 1 - aracter(eurusd, 1 format"d/m/Y returns - diff(log(eurusdc) # ttr:ROC can also be used: calculates log returns by default window. Once the model is specified, its equally simple to use it to create a rolling out-of-sample predictionthat is, just plug your data in, and after some burn-in period, you start to get predictions for a variety of metrics. The srucural and saisical properies of he model, including necessary and sufficien condiions for saionariy and ergodiciy of varma-garch and varma- agarch, are explained in deail in Ling and McAleer (2003) and McAleer. Chen (2007 On he applicaion of he dynamic condiional correlaion model in he esimaing opimal ime-varying hedge raios, Applied Economics Leer, 14, Lanza,.,. Based on he Bollerslev and Wooldridge (1992) robus -raios, he esimaes of he DCC parameers, 1 and 2, are saisically significan in all cases. In addiion, since 1, all markes saisfy he second momen and log-momen condiion, which is a sufficien condiion for he qmle o be consisen and asympoically normal (see McAleer, Chan and Marinova (2007). R QuantStrat TradeR, and kindly contributed to, r-bloggers this post will review Kris Boudts datacamp course, along with introducing some concepts from it, discuss garch, present an application of it to volatility trading strategies, and a somewhat more general review of datacamp. Here I also find the optimal arma order for garch models as you can refer. Tse (2002 Some recen developmens in fuures hedging, Journal of Economic Surveys, 16(3 Ling,.


Garch, model Selection - Quintuitive

8 9 The assumpion ha he condiional correlaions are consan may seem unrealisic in arma garch trading strategy many empirical resuls, paricularly in previous sudies abou crude oil reurns (see, for example, Lanza. Bekk Esimaes Panel a: brsp_brfu Reurns C AR M B brsp (2.527) (-2.585) (2.481) (-1.286) (-7.800) (5.613) (-6.583) ( ) brfu (2.386) ( ) (12.605) (6.616) (-0.063) (5.438) ( ) ( ) (-0.967) Panel b: wtisp_wtifu Reurns. (2004) examined appropriae fuures conracs, and examine he effeciveness of hedging marine bunker price flucuaions in Roerdam, Singapore and Houson using differen crude oil and peroleum fuures conracs raded on he New York Mercanile Exchange (nymex) and he Inernaional. Auto-Regressive: past values are used as inputs to predict future values. Theoreically, issues in hedging involve he deerminaion of he opimal hedge raio (OHR). Hedger wan o minimize risk, regardless of wha hey are invesing in, while speculaors wan o increase heir risk and hereby maximize profis. Those libraries make expressing and analyzing investment ideas far more efficient, and removes a great chance of making something like an off-by-one error (also known as look-ahead bias in trading). Tuesdays close finally ended the short position on the SPY, which was in place since Jan 8th. DCC is no linear, bu may be esimaed simply using a wo-sep mehod based on he likelihood funcion, he firs sep being a series of univariae garch esimaes and he second sep being he correlaion esimaes (see Caproin and. Consider he CCC mulivariae garch model of Bollerslev (1990 y E y F 1, D (1) var 1 Where, y,., y1 y m,., 1 m is a sequence of independenly and idenically disribued (i.i.d.) random vecors. Time print(t2-t1) # convert predictions to data frame garchroll ame(garchroll in this case, I use a rolling 504 day window that refits every 22 days(approximately 1 trading month). Symmetric DCC asymmetric DCC Flexible DCC GO-garch Copula-garch In order to started the high-frequency-trading statistical modelling, I inspect the dataset via m I - and also m I - II but the univariate modelling caused some statistical error. The wo enries corresponding o each of he parameers are he esimae and he Bollerslev-Wooldridge (1992) robus -raios.


Or, to summarize: use past volatility to predict future volatility because it changes over time. ) is he weigh of he spo (fuures) in a one dollar porfolio of crude oil. 1 2 Absrac The paper examines he performance of four mulivariae volailiy models, namely CCC, varma-garch, DCC and bekk, for he crude oil spo and fuures reurns of wo major benchmark inernaional crude oil markes, Bren and WTI, o calculae. First off, were going to get data for SPY from Yahoo finance, then specify our garch model. Hold.ts) rves - cbind(rve, rve) names(rves) - c Strategy returns "Buy and hold returns # plot both curves together myColors - c( "darkorange "blue plot(x rves Strategy returns xlab "Time ylab "Cumulative Return main "Cumulative Returns ylim c(-0.25,.4 major. In order o compare he performance of OHRs obained from differen mulivariae condiional volailiy models, Ku. In his diagonal represenaion, he condiional 2 2 ii ii variances are funcions of heir own lagged values and own lagged reurns shocks, while he condiional covariances are funcions of he lagged covariances and lagged cross-producs of he corresponding reurns shocks. Direction - ifelse(recasts 0, 1, ifelse(recasts 0, -1, 0) # Create the arima/garch returns for the directional system turns -. Therefore, OHR can be calculaed given he knowledge of he ime-dependen covariance marix for cash and fuures prices, which can be esimaed using mulivariae garch models. Fuures raders are radiionally placed in one of wo groups, namely hedgers and speculaors. For the staking model, I simply forecast the highest and lowest price, and then : Kelly criterion and using highest or lowest price for closing transaction, otherwise using closing price if the forecasted lowest/highest price is not occur.


Length) l - vector(mode"numeric lengthforecasts. (2) Enries in bold are significan a he 5 level Loglikelihood AIC Loglikelihood AIC 26 Panel a: brsp_brfu brsp brfu Table. The empirical resuls show ha he opimal porfolio weighs of all mulivariae volailiy models for Bren sugges holding fuures in larger proporions han spo. The salient quantity here is the Sigma quantitythat is, the prediction for daily volatility. Taking arma garch trading strategy he parial derivaive of (16) wih respec o, seing i equal o zero and solving for, yields he OHR condiional on he informaion available a 1 (see, for example, Baillie and Myers. The papers compares multi-methods like interpolatan, kalman, locf and. (2003) for a review of he fuures hedge raio, and Lien and Tse (2002) for some recen developmens in fuures hedging). The hedging effeciveness indicaed ha DCC (bekk) was he bes (wors) model for OHR calculaion in erms of he variance of porfolio reducion. Inser Table 4 here The DCC esimaes of he condiional correlaions beween he volailiies of spo and fuures reurns based on esimaing he univariae garch(1,1) model for each marke are given in Table. Baillie and Myers (1991) claim ha, if he join disribuion of cash prices and fuures prices changes over ime, esimaing a consan hedge raio may no be appropriae. Generally, my procedure will be: try to complete the exercise, and if I fail, go back and look at the slides to find an analogous block of code, change some names, and fill.


Alernaive Hedging Saegies Opimal Porfolio Weighs Average OHR Variance of Porfolios Hedge Effeciveness Model Bren WTI Bren WTI Bren WTI Bren WTI CCC e e varma-garch e e DCC e e bekk e e Unhedged Porfolio.199e e Figure. Tansucha (2009b Forecasing volailiy and spillovers in crude oil spo, forward and fuures marke, Available a ssrn: hp:m/absrac Chang,.-L.,. In conras, he lowes HE value in boh markes is obained from bekk model. As E F 1 E, where ij for i, j 1,., m, he consan condiional correlaion marix of he uncondiional shocks, is equivalen o he consan condiional covariance marix of he condiional shocks, from, D diag. DCC Esimaes C AR MA e-03 (2.671).244e-03 (2.789) Panel b: wtisp_wtifu wtisp (1.580) wtifu (1.796) (-3.584) ( ) (3.765) (18.131).742e-06 (5.033).012e-06 (5.156) (13.851) (11.195) ( ) ( ) (18.766) ( ) C AR MA (-5.655) (6.871) (5.160) (-8.085). Exponential Weighted Moving arma garch trading strategy Average, monte Carlo Markov Chain, bayesian Time Series. For esimaed ime-varying hedge raios using mulivariae condiional volailiy models, Haigh and Hol (2002) modelled he ime-varying hedge raio among crude oil (WTI heaing oil and unleaded gasoline fuures conracs in reducing price volailiy for an energy.


Trading with SVMs: Performance - Quintuitive

And in some cases, you may have a professor in a fairly advanced field, like Kris Boudt, teach a fairly advanced topic, like the state-of-the art rugarch package (this *is* an industry-used package, and is actively maintained by Alexios. Every 22) t2 Sys. Also, from what Ive seen of quantitative finance taught in Python, and having to rebuild all functions from numpy/pandas, I am puzzled as to how people do quantitative finance in Python without libraries like PerformanceAnalytics, rugarch, quantstrat, PortfolioAnalytics, and. These arma garch trading strategy crude oil reurns series have high kurosis, which indicaes he presence of fa ails. 1 Crude Oil Hedging Sraegies Using Dynamic Mulivariae garch Roengchai Tansucha * Faculy of Economics Maejo Universiy Chiang Mai, Thailand Chia-Lin Chang Deparmen of Applied Economics Naional Chung Hsing Universiy Taichung, Taiwan Michael McAleer Economerics Insiue Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus. You can now take courses to gain an understanding of what my code does, and ask questions about. It isnt one constant level, such. While Ive written about the VIX3M/VIX6M ratio in the past, which has formed the basis of my proprietary trading strategy, Id certainly love to investigate other volatility trading ideas out in public. Havent had positive experience with stop losses in the past, so I am still pondering what to try. The average value of w SF, calculaed from (20) and (21 based on he Bren and WTI markes, are repored in he firs and second columns. This is the quantity that we want to compare against the VIX.


Youll take some courses that give you a general tour of what data scientists, and occasionally, quants,. The arch and garch esimaes of he condiional variance beween crude oil spo and fuures reurns in Bren and WTI are saisically significan. Queueing Theory Calculator The Pith of Performance arma garch trading strategy by Neil Gunther (2010) Computationally Efficient Simulation of Queues - The R Package queuecomputer Waiting-Line Models Queues with Breakdowns and Customer Discouragement.3) Question III Data APIs/feeds available as packages in R Application. 0) Interview Sample Question, the sample question for Interview a job. Consider he case of an oil company, which usually 10 11 wans o proec exposure o crude oil price flucuaions.


The garch model has three componentsthe mean modelthat is, assumptions about the arma (basic arma time series nature of the returns, in this case I just assumed an AR(1 a variance modelwhich is the part in which you. In he lieraure, research has been conduced on he volailiy of crude spo, forward and fuures reurns. As you can see, with a single function call, the user can specify a very extensive model encapsulating assumptions about both the returns and the model which governs their variance. (1991 Esimaing ime varying hedge raio on fuures markes, Journal of Fuures Markes, 11, Myers,. McAleer (2003 Asympoic heory for a vecor arma-garch model, Economeric Theory, 19, Manera,.,. While Ill save the Greek notation for those that feel inclined to do a google search, heres the acronym: Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Grasso (2006 Modelling ime-varying condiional correlaions in he volailiy of Tapis oil spo and forward reurns, Applied Financial Economics, 16, McAleer,. Due to the paper m Interview Q1 - Tick-Data-HiLo For Daily Trading (Blooper) simulated the data and then only noticed I not yet updated the new function, then I wrote garcharima(p,d,q) to compare the accuracy. The esimaes for bekk are given in Table. The bekk model for mulivariae garch(1,1) is given as: H CBH B, (14) where he individual elemen for he marices C, A and B marices are given.


Parallelized Back Testing - Quintuitive

Test(resid, lag 20, type "Ljung-Box fitdf 0) li1 - lue dates - eurusd, 1 forecasts. Thus, hey end o ake shor posiions in fuures. (1960 The heory of hedging and speculaion in commodiy fuures, Review of Economic Sudies, 27, Knill,.,. 1.2) Blooper Initially, I wrote a shiny app (as showing in below gif file) but it is heavily budden for loading. So far, I havent seen the Python end of Datacamp dive deep into quantitative finance, and I hope that changes in the near future. The idea of the VRP is that we compare some measure of realized volatility (EG running standard deviation, garch predictions from past data) to the VIX, which is an implied volatility (so, purely forward looking). It varies with respect to time. Figlewski (1988 Esimaion of he opimal fuures hedge, Review of Economics and Saisics, 70, Chang,.-L.,. In order o make he condiional correlaion marix ime dependen, Engle (2002) proposed a dynamic condiional correlaion (DCC) model, which is defined as y (0, Q 1,2,., n (9) 1, (10) where D diag h1,., hm is a diagonal. From he mulivariae condiional volailiy model, he condiional covariance marix is obained, such ha he OHR is given as: 11 12 h SF, 1, (18) hf, where h SF, is he condiional covariance beween spo and fuures. So, theres an asymmetry in the face of positive and negative returns.


23 24 Table. Therefore, he long run persisence, is generally close o one, indicaing a near long memory process. (2001 Hedging governmen oil price risk, IMF Working Paper 01/185. 1) Question.1) Answer, i use daily ohlcv usdjpy data (from to ) and application of some models to forecast the highest and lowest price : Auto Arima models, exponential Time Series, univariate Garch models. Heres how the predictions look like: head(garchroll) Mu Sigma Skew Shape Shape(GIG) Realized.635618e-06.9456084.946798e-04.9456084.565350e-06.9456084.608623e-04.9456084.096157e-04.9456084.922663e-04.9456084. Length forecasts - vector(mode"numeric lengthforecasts. GetSymbols VIX from # convert garch sigma predictions to same scale as the VIX by annualizing, multiplying by 100 garchPreds xts(garchrollSigma * sqrt(252) * 100,.